What is technology life cycle?
The technology life cycle is the journey that any new technology or technology products undertakes from its initial R&D development cycle, adolescence, maturity to its "inevitable" decline and eventual death. (Reminded me of End Game- Thanos said "I am inevitable")
Which stage is AI technology now?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is arguably the most disruptive technology of the last decade, It stands to fundamentally change how society and economy function as well as changing the way people work and live. In my opinion, I would say that AI technology is quietly positioned at the most important stage of the life cycle; "The Chasm".
So, WHAT is the “Chasm” stage?
Chasm can be defined as a deep fissure on the earth surface, a deep valley. It certainly is not a small "Long Kang"(small drain"). The “Chasm” stage is characterised by challenges, technological as well as social. One of the most difficult phases in a technology product life is “crossing the Chasm”. It is a phase where a transition between early adopters and the majority market If a business can create a major breakthrough, (for eg, Tesla’s self driving cars is adopted by a developed country)
What are the effects of the life cycle stage on the price AI related mutual funds?
Take a look at this example of an AI mutual fund. (leave me a message if you want to know which fund is this). From its launch in Dec 2017, there are price fluctuations which is highly predictable.
What do I mean?
The AI tech fund was launched in Q4 2017 and had its up’s and down’s. The period between Q4 2018 and early Q1 2019 were plagued by fears from the workforce that AI and Robotics can replace human jobs, their jobs. In early 2019, there was a huge campaign in the internet that A.I. experts spoke to assure the public that A.I. are created to replace human tasks, not jobs. And from Feb 2019, the upward trend of the price on the news of a series of successful adoption of the A.I. technology, (eg. Self-driving cars (Tesla and Google subsidiary company call Waymo) , Amazon’s Rekognition image and video recognition engine, Facebook uses A.I. to detect fake accounts, posts etc.)
Predicting what will happen next?
I cannot conclude that A.I. technology has currently successfully, and has completely crossed the chasm, or when it will enter mainstream market (see Diagram 1: Technology Product Life Cycle). But I am confident that it is currently at its tail end of the chasm stage.
There may be some forthcoming mishaps or negative news as the technology are deployed into mainstream usage. (For example, an accident by a self driven car, buggy navigation, wrong facial recognition leads to arrest etc.) Once all this hiccups are overcome, I daresay that A.I. Technology is here to stay.
Believe it or not, even now when we are using our mobile devices, some of the apps that you are using are utilising A.I. enabled hardware. (eg newer mobile model uses A.I. chipset for their cameras) and A.I. cloud services. (Google voice, Alexa, Siri).
Recent news has revealed that almost every developed country (including Singapore) has included A.I. technology research or adoption spending in their government budget for 2020. (For example USA, read The federal government of USA is preparing to invest about $4.9 billion in unclassified artificial intelligence and machine learning-related research and development in fiscal 2020.)
If you believe in what I have explained, this will mean that A.I. based mutual funds would be expecting an uptrend very soon. Look out for news on companies that deploys A.I technology in their products, like Samsung, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google). Keep track of their stock performances. Try not to miss the boat.